Course 2024-2025 a.y.

The course centers around the comprehension and application of a novel framework designed to structure key strategic decision-making in the face of uncertainty.

It encompasses the following topics:

• An introductory overview of decision-making under conditions of uncertainty, featuring real-world case examples.
• An introduction to Bayesian statistics and the utilization of Direct Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) as tools to structure decision problems.
• Techniques for running gathering primary data, using surveys, experiments, interviews, and diaries, and how to select the best prior distribution to gather evidence for.
• Techniques for developing theories to address strategic problems in an uncertain environment, employing a structured methodology that incorporates causal and probabilistic reasoning..
• An introduction to conducting experiments within business contexts, including how to effectively utilize experimental results to update prior beliefs into posteriors.

• Recognize situations where decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty.
• Simple understanding of Bayesian statistics and Bayesian networks.
• Interpret decisions under uncertainty using Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and local prior distributions.  
• Understanding which theoretical arm to run an experiment on, how to acquire primary data in the absence of secondary sources.
• Introduction to experimental design to acquire evidence to update priors to posteriors.

• Utilize a systematic framework to guide decision-making processes in uncertain environments.
• Formulate their own theories of strategic problems by constructing Bayesian causal structures and calculating associated probabilities.
• Design custom experiments and implement data collection efforts to obtain pertinent information for making rational decisions on real-world problems.

• Lectures
• Guest speaker's talks (in class or in distance)
• Collaborative Works / Assignments
• Interaction/Gamification

Case studies: Students will have the opportunity to analyze and discuss various case studies that showcase significant strategic decisions made by companies. These case studies serve as practical examples to reinforce the understanding of the concepts taught in class and provide a connection to real-world phenomena.

Group assignments: As part of the course, there will be a final group assignment that allows students to apply the techniques and framework learned throughout the course. This assignment promotes collaboration and the application of the decision-making framework in a practical context.

Interactive class activities: Students will engage in interactive class activities, including a novel simulation game, where they will be actively involved in applying the decision-making framework taught in class. These activities provide hands-on experience and enhance the students' comprehension and practical application of the framework.

The assessment of students' learning outcomes in this course is based on two main components

Group assignment (18 points): This assignment aims to evaluate the students' ability to:

• Analyze decision problems and identify key elements such as possible strategies, outcomes, and scenarios.
• Apply the framework and methodologies taught in class to address decision problems.
• Collaborate effectively within a team and individually, and deliver a concise but clear report highlighting relevant outcomes.

The evaluation of the group project will be valid for all exam sessions within the relevant academic year.

Final written exam (12 points): This exam is designed to assess students' knowledge of the topics covered in class and the relevant readings. It consists of a combination of closed and open questions.

Active class participation is encouraged, and students can earn up to two additional point on top of the previous points.

Non attending students will be evaluated based on a final oral exam only, which will include the logic behind the topics from the slides that are made available.

Relevant papers and readings will be shared with the classroom through Blackboard.